The White House came perilously close last week to seeing the defeat of its much-touted trade agreement with Central America -- with Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, and the Dominican Republic -- pulling out a one-vote win only after three Republicans opposing the trade pact were convinced at the last moment to vote "yes" (WTD, 7/29/05)

Republican leaders held the CAFTA vote open for about forty minutes with the vote stuck at 214 to 211 in favor, because the remaining eight Republican votes were members opposed to the agreement. Several, in fact, had taken campaign pledges to vote against CAFTA, making it impossible for them to vote with their party, according to Republican Whip Roy Blunt (Mo).

If all of those remaining Republicans had voted against CAFTA, the agreement would have fallen 214 to 219 -- handing President Bush a major trade policy defeat. For a few moments at least, things looked so bleak for the Administration that Ohio Democrat Sherrod Brown -- who had for months been leading the opposition to CAFTA -- burst into the press gallery where reporters sit in the House chamber waving a list of the remaining Republicans to announce that CAFTA was "in real trouble."

But almost as soon as Rep. Brown made his prediction, Republican Leaders -- and US Trade Representative Rob Portman -- managed to convince North Carolina Republican Robin Hayes -- who had cast a "no" vote against CAFTA soon after the roll call began -- to switch to the "yes" column.

Seconds after Rep. Hayes made the switch, two of the remaining Republicans -- Steve LaTourette (Ohio) and Mike Fitzpatrick (Pa) -- also voted "yes," something they had earlier promised leaders they would do if necessary. That took supporters to 217 and freed up Reps. Charles Boustany (La), Shelley Moore Capito (WVa), Bobby Jindal (R-Ill) and Robert Simmons (Conn) to keep promises they had made constituents to vote against CAFTA.

Cuba

The two remaining Republicans opposed to CAFTA did not vote. Rep. Jo Ann Davis (Va) -- who would have voted against CAFTA, according to her spokeswoman -- was not present because she was held up in traffic after attending the national Boy Scout Jamboree in Virginia, which included a memorial for three Scout masters killed in freak accident earlier in the week her home district. Mississippi Republican Charles Taylor says he cast a "no" vote, but apparently did not notice his vote had not been recorded. In a statement posted the next day on his House homepage, Rep. Taylor said that he believed his "no" vote had been recorded, but the House Clerk's records indicates only that he attempted to vote.

As he watched with reporters while the final tally for CAFTA was announced at 217 to 215, Rep. Brown decried the "sleazy" tactics used by the White House and Republican leaders to get a win on CAFTA.

Announced Friday by the Treasury Department was revisions in a controversial rule relating to cash- in-advance payments for agricultural sales to Cuba (see related report this issue). Two important Republican members -- Rep. Jo Ann Emerson (Mo) and Jerry R. Moran (Kans) -- had pressed the issue prior to the CAFTA vote, threatening to vote against CAFTA if the rule remained. They ended up voting "yes" last Wednesday.

The vote on CAFTA was the second time that Rep. Hayes was the deciding vote on a trade bill. Five years ago, he also was convinced at the last moment to switch his vote and support Presidential Trade Promotion Authority. Mr. Hayes has indicated several factors -- all relating to his district's textile interests -- swayed his decision. First was Nicaragua's agreement to buy US trouser fabric every time it uses third- country fabric under its special tariff preference level concession. In addition, the Administration completed a customs enforcement pact with Hong Kong aimed at keeping illegally transshipped Chinese textiles out of the United States. And in a letter released Friday, Rep. Hayes said USTR Portman promised to work with the US textile industry on a comprehensive textile agreement to limit Chinese imports. In the letter to Mr. Portman, Rep. Hayes said the US industry wants a deal that puts tight limits on sensitive textile products until 2008.

The 15 Democrats who sided with the Administration and supported CAFTA -- one more than the 14 estimated by WTD -- immediately came under fire from organized labor. "The labor movement will remember this vote," AFL-CIO President John Sweeney warned. "Those Democrats who voted for CAFTA sided with big business over the working men and women who walked their neighborhoods, manned their phone banks and worked hard to put them into office."

Even before the vote was taken, labor organization joined in offering an even more concrete threat against Democrats that supported CAFTA. In a letter to House Democratic leaders, 20 major unions made clear they will not continue to provide financial support to vulnerable Democrats that did not back labor on CAFTA. The letter specifically mentions three Democrats that voted for CAFTA -- Reps. Melissa Bean (Ill), Jim Matheson (Utah) and Dennis Moore (Kan). All three members benefited from the "Frontline" program that supports vulnerable Democrats. "Voting for CAFTA against our strong, clear and loud objections would signal to the labor movement that those Frontline Candidates do not want our support," the letter said. "There must be real and measurable consequences for opposing labor on this issue," the unions added.

Business Democrats

But all three Democrats represent districts where there was strong business support for the agreement. Rep. Bean's district includes candy manufacturers and other sugar-using producers that see CAFTA as helping to lower the prices they pay for sugar. Mr. Matheson said in a statement that he believes his district's high-tech companies -- including Intel -- will benefit from the agreement. And Mr. Moore came under pressure from agriculture groups in his district to support CAFTA.

Five Democrats had publicly supported CAFTA from fairly early on -- Jim Moran (Va), William Jefferson (La), Henry Cuellar (Texas), John Tanner (Tenn) and Norm Dicks (Wash). Also voting for CAFTA were Democrats Jim Cooper (Tenn), Ruben Hinojosa (Texas), Gregory Meeks (NY), Solomon Ortiz (Texas), Ike Skelton (Mo), Vic Snyder (Ark) and Edolphus Towns (NY). Some of those members remained undecided on CAFTA almost until the last moment. Rep. Ortiz did not finally decide to support CAFTA until just 30 minutes before the vote started, according to his spokeswoman. Others, like Rep. Meeks, had indicated for some time they saw potential benefits to CAFTA. In a statement, Rep. Meeks said he believes the agreement will be good for his district, which includes JFK airport.

But business had only a limited impact on Democrats. Out of a group of 25 initially undecided Democrats targeted by CAFTA business supporters, only eight ended up voting for the agreement. Business groups did much better with Republicans -- of the 38 Republicans targeted, 28 voted for CAFTA.