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Trade Pact Votes May Haunt Lawmakers

Some Legislators in Both Parties Are Vulnerable to Voter Backlash Over Job Losses

The Wall Street Journal
September 20, 2005
By GREG HITT

WASHINGTON -- While Hurricane Katrina, gas prices and the Iraq war dominate today's news, many lawmakers are finding that voters also are concerned about trade -- in particular the Central American Free Trade Agreement that Congress passed over the summer in a cliffhanger vote.

In Illinois, a local labor federation withdrew a "Person of the Year" award that was to have been given to Rep. Melissa Bean, after the Democrat backed Cafta, as the pact is known. In Texas, labor activists are recruiting candidates to challenge Rep. Henry Cuellar, another Cafta supporter, in the Democratic primary.

Rep. Robin Hayes, (R., N.C.), picked up a Democratic challenger to his re-election bid next year -- an Iraq war veteran who cited Mr. Hayes's vote for Cafta as a big reason why he jumped into the race. Mr. Hayes, who represents a region hit by textile-job losses, initially voted against the pact, but changed his mind at the last minute under pressure from Republican leaders. "That's just not right," says Democrat Tim Dunn, a lawyer from Fayetteville, N.C.

"A message needs to be sent," says Gary Hubbard, a spokesman for the United Steel Workers union, which has turned up pressure on Cafta supporters by picketing the district offices of Republican Reps. Randy Kuhl of New York and Melissa Hart of Pennsylvania, as well as those of Democratic Reps. John Tanner of Tennessee and of Norm Dicks of Washington state. "We've got to, politically, make a strong stand. The message is going to resonate for a long time," Mr. Hubbard said.

Since the beginning of the year, trade politics have roiled the nation's capital, fueled by the soaring U.S. trade deficit and the rise of China as an economic power. Then came the bitter fight for Cafta, the seven-nation Central American pact, which squeaked through Congress in late July on a 217-215 roll call in the House of Representatives.

Tensions are likely to rise as the 2006 congressional elections loom. Despite the close call on Cafta, the Bush administration will push for a vote soon on a free-trade agreement with Bahrain, and is negotiating several other pacts likely to require votes early next year. An Andean free-trade agreement with Colombia, Peru and Ecuador is in the final stages of negotiation and involves the same labor, agriculture and intellectual-property issues that made the Cafta vote so difficult. The White House also is working on free-trade deals with Panama and a number of Middle Eastern countries, including Oman and the United Arab Emirates. And just yesterday, Mr. Bush, appearing with Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, signaled his hope to conclude a U.S.-Thai free-trade agreement "as quickly as possible."

In Geneva, meanwhile, U.S. negotiators are working out details of an agreement designed to lower trade barriers -- on issues such as services and agriculture -- among the 148 member nations of the World Trade Organization. The goal is to reach a framework deal in the so-called Doha Round of talks as early as December, when WTO ministers gather in Hong Kong, and perhaps put the ambitious package to a vote in Congress in 2006. Any such pact is certain to force some politically sensitive sacrifices, like cuts in agriculture subsidies.

It isn't clear that either political party has an advantage in the free-trade debate. Cafta opponents, such as Public Citizen, the left-leaning advocacy group, are hammering Democrats and Republicans alike. Republican strategists suggest pocketbook issues, such as taxes, are far more likely to matter in 2006 than any single vote on an overarching trade bill. But the risk for Republicans is that upheaval in the economy -- especially plant closings that send jobs to Central America -- focus voters on free trade and make Cafta a liability for the majority party in Congress.

Republican supporters of Cafta from labor-friendly districts in Ohio and Pennsylvania could be vulnerable, as could Republicans from textile-producing regions such as North and South Carolina. Foreign competition has led to job losses in both areas, and that concerns business advocates. While the benefits of free trade are typically spread across the economy, the downsides -- such as job losses -- are more readily spotlighted by the media. "It's the individuals who often make a nice image," says Dave McCurdy, president of the Electronic Industries Alliance, a leading beneficiary and advocate of free-trade pacts.

Earlier this month, Mr. McCurdy, along with John Engler, president of the National Association of Manufacturers, and John Castellani, president of the Business Roundtable, held a fund-raising reception in Washington for several of the 15 Democrats who crossed party lines to help pass Cafta. Had any of them voted no, the trade pact would have failed on a tie vote.

Mr. McCurdy says it is important for businesses to respond to the "louder voices" on the other side of the free-trade debate. The former congressman says the reception is just "one of many steps" that will be taken to shore up free-trade supporters on the Hill. "I know how important it is ... to be there not just before the vote, but 365 days a year," he says.

An event is being planned for a group of Republicans like Rep. Hayes, for whom Cafta is a potential political liability. Moreover, lobbyists and business advocates say several smaller events -- a mix of fund-raisers and local news conferences -- are being planned to benefit individual lawmakers. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce has organized a fund-raiser for Rep. Mark Kennedy, a Minnesota Republican seeking the state's open Senate seat, and has run radio ads across the state praising the candidate's backing of Cafta.

"Time has a way of erasing the memory of how difficult these things were," says Rolf Lundberg, the top lobbyist at the chamber. "We're not going to forget. We want to make sure people remember this wasn't an easy choice."

Write to Greg Hitt at greg.hitt@wsj.com


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