New York Times
October 29, 2001
By Tina Rosenberg

The name Daniel Ortega will always conjure images of revolution. The world first glimpsed him on July 19, 1979, riding an armored personnel carrier as the victorious Sandinistas marched into Managua. Over the next 11 years, his was the solemn face of the nine-man junta ruling Nicaragua. Today, he is an even bet to be elected president of Nicaragua on Nov. 4. The rest of the world wonders why.

Mr. Ortega's electoral chances have little to do with Sandinismo. Voters in Nicaragua, as in other impoverished nations, rarely vote for candidates. Instead, they vote against incumbents. The problems of Nicaragua are so overwhelming and the political class so inept and corrupt that voters throw out government after government in hopes of trying something new. Mr. Ortega's opponent, Enrique Bolaños, was vice president in the current administration of President Arnoldo Aleman.

I lived in Nicaragua for two years in the mid-1980's, and have visited several times in the years since then. By the mid-80's, the revolution had already turned sour for most Nicaraguans, as war and economic mismanagement had wrecked the economy. But times are worse today. Children are going hungry. In some areas, 70 percent of the people are unemployed. Nicaragua has suffered a hurricane and then a drought, which parched the corn and bean patches that sustain most families. The state uses 40 percent of its export earnings to pay its external debt. Most devastating, the price of coffee, Nicaragua's only significant export, has fallen.

Mr. Aleman's government is widely seen as indifferent to these problems and concerned mainly with the fortunes of business. Numerous newspaper reports accuse the president of using state funds to improve his properties -- most recently building a helipad -- and providing government contracts for relatives. He denies all accusations of corruption. Many Nicaraguans have concluded that for all Mr. Ortega's faults, he will at least worry about the poor.

Washington, once again, would like to see Mr. Ortega defeated. The American Embassy helped to persuade a third-party candidate to drop out and support Mr. Bolaños, and American officials have warned that aid would dry up if Mr. Ortega won.

The Bush administration complains that Mr. Ortega has not encouraged the return of the properties his government confiscated from wealthy landowners, many of whom are now American citizens. But making an issue of these properties may not help Mr. Bolaños. Restoring them to their owners is important, but jobless Nicaraguans may be forgiven if they do not consider it to be their government's top priority.

Washington is also worried that Sandinista policies will return with Mr. Ortega. But Nicaragua, and the world, are very different places than 20 years ago. Last year, Mr. Ortega attended the Fourth of July party at the United States Embassy. He vows to respect private property, a market economy and democratic rules. Today there is no Somoza dictatorship to rebel against, no Soviet Union to provide ideological and financial support, and no covert American intervention. Most important, Mr. Ortega, like most politicians in Nicaragua, seems to be interested mainly in power, not ideology.

His love of power is what should concern voters today. As a leader of the opposition, Mr. Ortega has been irresponsible. He has often summoned his supporters into the streets, rattling the government with threats of violence. He has never allowed the Sandinista Party to examine its failings, and he has expelled most of his critics.

In 1998, Mr. Ortega's stepdaughter, Zoilamerica Narvaez, accused him of having sexually abused her for more than a decade, beginning when she was 11. Mr. Ortega, who has denied the accusations, is immune from prosecution in Nicaragua as a member of the National Assembly. But the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights recently announced it would take up the case, which may get very uncomfortable for Mr. Ortega.

The repression of dictators no longer torments Nicaragua, but elected leaders have continued with the Somozas' corruption, authoritarianism, incompetence and indifference to the poor. The problem with Mr. Ortega is not that his ideas are a radical departure for Nicaragua, but that his authoritarian nature is too much like what has come before.