The 15 countries of the Caribbean Community, or CARICOM, account for only 13 million of the 800 million consumers in what is envisioned as becoming the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA) by 2005.

But with more than half the FTAA's potential 34-country membership, CARICOM and the other small economies of the Caribbean Basin are likely to become either the Mouse That Roared or the Achilles Heel determining the future of the free trade agreement.

Caribbean officials suggest that, while the agreement could create many short-term problems for their mini-economies, there are potential long-term opportunities as well. But they insist that they need ''special and differential'' treatment if they are to survive among the sharks.

SWAMPED IN `TIDE'?

A metaphor often cited in their shaky optimism about the FTAA is that ''a rising tide lifts all boats.'' But there is concern, said Lisa Shoman, Belize's ambassador to both the United States and the Organization of American States, that without special treatment for small economies it could ``swamp some of us who are in canoes compared to yachts. We are not dealing with the same type of vessels here.''

Bahamas Trade Minister Leslie Miller put the position bluntly at a recent town meeting in Miami aimed at better informing Caribbean expatriates about the FTAA.

''I wish to reiterate in the strongest terms,'' Miller said, ``that the government of the Bahamas has no intention of signing on to any regional, hemispheric, bilateral or global trade arrangement which it deems not to be in the best interests of the Bahamas and its people.''

What is it that the small governments want?

''Several things,'' said Richard Bernal, the region's chief trade negotiator as executive director of the Caribbean Regional Negotiating Machinery. Among them is ``long adjustment periods for small economies; [import] tariffs, for example. We want our tariffs to be lowered at a much slower rate than other countries. There also is a need for financing for the cost of implementation and to assist the adjustment process.''

''Small countries depend very heavily on tariff revenue to finance their budgets,'' Bernal said. ``In some cases, 50 to 70 percent [of the total budget] comes from tariff revenues.

RICHARD BERNAL,

Caribbean Regional Negotiating Machinery

Reducing tariffs would cause severe financial dislocation. Also, because the average unit of production in the Caribbean is small, they don't realize the economies of scale, which larger economies can do. It's difficult to compete in any manufactured and agricultural products.''

It's not the traditional products such as bananas and sugar -- or even garments anymore -- that are at the crux of the region's concerns, but non-traditional sectors that vary from country to country but include shrimp, poultry, livestock and light manufactured products such as furniture.

Samuel Chandler, the top bureaucrat in the Barbados Ministry of Foreign Trade, cited as an example at the Miami forum a poultry processing plant in his island nation.

''Can you imagine,'' Chandler asked, ``if we liberalize or reduce substantially the tariffs on chicken, and the United States is subsidizing chicken? The United States grows chicken for just two parts, the white meat, the breast, and now for what they call wings, which are a special item. We grow a chicken as a chicken, and use all of it. When the United States makes the marketplace for the breast and the wings, they can throw away the rest of it.

'But some persons have got smart and said, `No, we can sell it to the Caribbean and other places.' So what are you [the United States] doing? Because of your economies of scale and because you're subsidized, you are benefiting from domestic support, finding a way of doing it unfairly.''

''This is a critical fight,'' said Chandler, ``so sometimes you will hear the Caribbean is very inflexible. But we have to fight. If not, we will get swamped.''

DUAL TRACKS

Bernal complains, too, that the United States is pursuing FTAA and, at the same time, bilateral trade pacts with its hemispheric neighbors. ''Countries who signed on to FTAA now find that other countries going the bilateral route are getting better market access than them,'' Bernal said. ``What happens to the rest of the participants? Do they line up in the bilateral line or press on with the FTAA?''

Bernal doubts that negotiation of the full FTAA agenda can be completed by the December 2004 deadline. He and other Caribbean officials argue that the schedule will have to be extended or the agenda trimmed, a move that Washington is resisting.

''I don't know what the magic is about December 2004, other than U.S. presidential elections,'' said Bernal. ``The only reason it [the schedule] would not be adjusted is American domestic politics, to get it done as quickly as possible. But more important is to do it properly.''