CongressDaily
November 28, 2001
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Supporters of presidential trade negotiating authority are preparing an intensive three-pronged campaign this week -- involving communications, whipping and coalitions -- to build support for the controversial trade bill heading to the floor next week.
A spokesman for House Majority Leader Armey said the communications campaign will mobilize pro-trade House members and grassroots allies to target undecided House members and the media.
"The strategy is clear: Communicate the importance of trade," the Armey spokesman said. "A vote for trade promotion authority is a vote for job security."
Armey aides are now meeting daily with House Republican Conference Chairman J.C. Watts of Oklahoma, Ways and Means Chairman Thomas and Rules Chairman Dreier.
The Bush administration is planning to weigh into the trade debate publicly beginning Thursday and to become increasingly vocal through next week's vote. Commerce Secretary Evans, Agriculture Secretary Veneman and Trade Representative Zoellick will play leading roles in the public campaign.
Republican leadership sources said the whipping is focusing on GOP members who represent districts with significant steel, textile or labor constituencies, while a handful of Republicans remain in the whip list's "other" category.
House Majority Whip DeLay said Tuesday he was actively "growing the vote" and working with undecided blocs, "taking care of members' problems."
"We'll be very focused on TPA this week and next week," DeLay said. Asked about the bill's prospects, DeLay said, "I think we'll do all right."
Armey said Tuesday that next Thursday's date for floor consideration would force uncommitted members finally to take a position on the trade issue.
Armey, who has long pushed for a floor vote, said trade proponents missed a chance during the 1997 debate on what was known then as fast track. House leaders had scheduled a vote but pulled the bill when they did not appear to have the votes.
"We never put it on the floor. We never tested the proposition," Armey said, adding that GOP leaders this time support scheduling the date. "I've got nothing but green lights."
In an effort to help persuade lawmakers to vote for the measure, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and other business groups are back on the air with radio ads in more than 20 targeted districts, according to business sources. "We're running positive yet pointed ads with the message of opening up markets for our goods," said one business source.
The source said about 12-15 Democrats now support the legislation. But the source added that business groups would oppose efforts to expand language on labor and the environment in the legislation.
"Democrats are feeling out how committed the business community is to the labor and environment provisions [in the Thomas bill]," the source said. The answer is, `very committed.' That's a ceiling for us, not a floor. It's not in play."
Frank Vargo of the National Association of Manufacturers said about 60 members' votes were in play and noted that the business community was making a "maximum effort" to secure votes.
But he acknowledged that the vote count had not changed since GOP leaders set the Dec. 6 date for a floor vote.
"There's no incentive for them to declare now," Vargo said. "People don't want to commit. But we have not seen any increase in the number of people flatly saying no."
On the other side of the issue, a labor official said the unions have not gone back on the air with ads opposing the legislation, although they have sent out word to local affiliates that a vote is imminent.
"We will do whatever it takes," the official said. "People can count on a strong and vigorous campaign on our part."
An ongoing CongressDaily survey of House members on the trade bill approved by the Ways and Means Committee shows no spike in support. Opponents edged ahead of supporters among those who have taken a position.
Zoellick weighed in on the debate Tuesday, expressing frustration that farm belt legislators had not shown more support for trade negotiating authority.
"The nature of American trade politics is that you need to organize those who have an interest in trade," Zoellick said. He added that it is "extremely frustrating" that "American agriculture lives" through trade, but that the importance of trade is "not represented in statements on the Hill."
Zoellick's comments came after a briefing on the trade ministerial meeting in Doha, Qatar, that launched a new round of trade talks earlier this month.
Asked about House members linking their support for trade negotiating authority to the administration's support for the farm bill, Zoellick said the White House "at the end of the year" would note what linkages are necessary to get legislation passed, but listed trade adjustment assistance, the economic stimulus package and unemployment legislation before he mentioned the farm bill as a measure that could be linked to trade negotiating authority.
Meanwhile, Public Citizen's Global Trade Watch Director Lori Wallach said groups opposed to presidential trade negotiating authority are confident that Republicans lack the votes to pass the Thomas bill.
She said labor and environmental groups would stay engaged in the next few weeks, but she is confident the bill cannot pass. She doubted that President Bush would have the time needed to strong-arm undecided Republicans -- even if that was seen as the only chance for passing the bill.
She also contended that the launch of a new trade round by the World Trade Organization would probably mean that more Republicans from agricultural and textile states would vote no on the trade bill.
"I would say it is the final nail in the coffin, but the coffin was largely nailed shut already," she said.
Thomas said he disagreed with that analysis, noting that the launch of a new round would enable the administration to make a more specific case for what it can achieve in future trade agreements.
House Agriculture Chairman Combest has not decided one way or another on trade negotiating authority, based on WTO developments, said his spokesman.
However, a spokesman for a Republican member from a textile- producing state acknowledged that extension of the Andean Trade Preferences Act last week would compel that member, and perhaps a few other textile state legislators, to oppose the trade bill. -- By Mark Wegner, with Charlie Mitchell, Stephen Norton and Jerry Hagstrom contributing