Ignored majority: The moderate Cuban American community By Philip Schmidt

(The following are excerpts from a forthcoming publication from the Latin America Working Group Education Fund and the Cuban American Alliance Education Fund. Copies will be available at www.lawg.org shortly.)

When national political candidates think of South Florida politics, one thought dominates ˆ hard-line, pro-embargo Cuban Americans voters. As a consequence, for a generation political candidates have chosen to take stances supportive of the fruitless embargo in order to win votes from Cuban Americans.

But this equation has become less valid for a variety of reasons. Chief among these reasons is the growing segment of the Cuban-American community which supports a more moderate stance toward Cuba and U.S.-Cuba policy. Polls show that this segment of the population is quickly overtaking the longstanding isolationist perspective. Perhaps more important to the community is the emergence of voices of moderation. These voices demand a greater emphasis on solving issues of direct importance to the community locally rather than toppling the Cuban government. They want elected officials to work on issues like jobs, healthcare, and education. The traditional equation is splintering.

These new moderating forces are being felt in the rest of the nation and in the Cuban-American community itself. This growing moderate segment, along with demographic changes in the non-Cuban Latino population, could soon rock the political establishment in Cuban-American communities. Smart politicians are beginning to hedge their bets on pro-embargo rhetoric.

The younger generation makes up more than half of the Cuban-American community. It is composed of second generation Cuban Americans and those émigrés that have come since 1980. Though they are the majority of the Cuban-American community, their voice is heard far less than the old guard. They lack the resources to be as politically powerful as other segments of the community and their voter registration percentages are far lower.

A recent poll showed that a staggering 70% of Cuban Americans felt that they were misled by politicians about their Cuba policy positions in order to gain votes. In this same poll, 55% of respondents felt that they would strongly support a candidate who says that the embargo has not worked and that it is time to explore new ways to encourage democracy in Cuba. [1] While Cuba is important to these people, their views are quite different from those of the older generations.

As the recent immigrants become prosperous, their influence on South Florida politics grows. Their voter registration rates are beginning to increase and, while there is a lag, their views are beginning to be reflected in the political dialogue in South Florida. These immigrants, along with some of the children of the old guard, are the core of a new moderate segment of the community, which is rapidly increasing in size and economic and political power. These are the people whose views are reflected in polls that show a majority of the Cuban- American community in favor of dialogue between the two nations, in favor of easing travel restrictions, and in favor of rethinking the failed strategy of the embargo.

Another factor that is rapidly changing the political equation in the Cuban-American community is the non-Cuban Latinos. In Florida, these groups already far outnumber the Cuban-American population. What's more, the population of these other groups is growing far faster than the Cuban-American community. And with the multiple efforts in progress that aim to increase the numbers of non-Cuban Latinos who are registered to vote, it won't be long before this segment is the voting bloc in Florida that politicians will seek to woo.

Both the polling data and the anecdotal evidence point to a real and lasting change underway in the Cuban-American community. The reign of the old guard is coming to an end; and the need for politicians to serve their interests, against those of the rest of the community and nation, is rapidly ending.

Taking the place of these hardliners is a new generation of Cuban Americans who do not support policies of isolation. Many of them agree with Cuban dissident Osvaldo Payá, who has, on many occasions, stated that waiting for Fidel Castro to die before promoting a positive relationship with the Cuban people is counterproductive. The new generation of moderate Cuban Americans is joined by non-Cuban Latinos who view an obsession with Cuba and the embargo as contrary to their own interests. Most all of these new moderates feel that engagement is the route to a better future for the Cuban people.

The unraveling of the hard-line dominance of the political dialogue in the Cuban American community has been underway for a number of years. The symptoms of the process of moderation are evident. But politicians, locally and nationally, have yet to capitalize on these changes.

This article was produced by The Latin America Working Group out of Washington, D.C. Philip Schmidt works with the Latin America Working Group Education Fund. ------------------

[1] Hamilton, Beattie and Associates poll. Conducted June 2003 of 600 Cuban American over the age of 18 in Miami-Dade County.

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