NAFTA, an initiative that liberalized trade and investment and that now is expanding to security and energy policies, has produced very meager results in terms of helping Mexicans' living standards reach those in the United States and Canada, the other partners in the agreement.

This is the World Bank's assessment: in spite of its natural resources and oil wealth, "the question is why Mexico's development has failed to converge with that of its NAFTA partners," since the treaty's ratification in 1994.

On Monday and Tuesday, the presidents of Mexico, Felipe Calderón, and of the United States, George Bush, will meet in Montebello, Canada with prime minister, Stephen Harper, for a "summit of North American leaders," to review topics related to NAFTA and its expansion, the Security and Prosperity Partnership (SPP).

In the report Mexico 2006-2012, Creating the Foundations for Equitable Growth, published last June, the World Bank announced that, in terms of the broadest economic welfare indicators, the last thirteen years have been rather unfavorable to Mexicans.

The report mentions that since the treaty's inception, the Mexican economy's growth has been insufficient for helping Mexico's per capita income converge with the United States' or Canada's. Although the authors do not mention it, the argument of NAFTA's promoters and defenders was precisely that the treaty would allow for convergence in development levels among the three signing parties.

It points out that in 1994, Mexico's per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was equivalent to 0.36 of Canada's and 0.28 of the United States. Today, the ratio has slid to Mexicans' detriment. Currently, Mexico's per capita GDP is 0.32 of Canada's and 0.25 of the United States'.

Poor performance

The World Bank report analyzes agricultural sector issues after NAFTA in detail. The sector will be completely liberalized next year, when protections against trade in corn and beans will expire.

"Mexico's agricultural performance has been poor in terms of productivity growth," the report indicates. "Mexico faces new competitors in the United States, and has achieved a small penetration in new markets."

Mexican agricultural exports have increased since NAFTA's implementation, but the growth has concentrated in some irrigated crops, in horticultural sectors, and in the processed foods and drinks subsectors, that are a very small share of Mexican agricultural production.

The World Bank points out that poverty is more widespread in rural than in urban areas.

Translated by Dwight Dyer of Global Exchange.