Chiapas al Día, No. 244
CIEPAC Chiapas, México
May 23, 2001

Plan Puebla Panama, Part III
Diagnostic of the Mexico Chapter: South Southeastern Region

The official document of the Plan Puebla Panama (PPP) contains a chapter on Mexico that includes information about the south and southeastern region that will be affected by the plan. This chapter contains an in-depth 250-page diagnostic with around 140 maps and graphics about demographics, economics, health, education, marginalization, and natural resources, among other themes that we now summarize, enrich and analyze in this bulletin.

The reality reflected in the PPP statistics is one of the reasons for the armed uprising of the EZLN and other armed groups in Mexico and also in Central America. However, the solution proposed by the PPP for the region is very far from a true solution, and will in fact worsen the already grave problems in the region. The PPP is a continuation of the strategy of the international market, in the framework of the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA). The investment of large amounts of capital demands that governments insure security of land ownership as well as legal and military security. May 11th of this year, 36 marine members graduated from the first group of the School of Special Forces to form the groups of Immediate Reaction Against Guerillas, trained in the Naval Base of Puerto Madero, Chiapas, according to the Admiral Marco Antonio González Peyrot and the Sub Secretary of the Marines, Admiral Alberto Castro Rosas.

Following is a summary of the statistics and information in the diagnostic. Surface: The South Southeast includes nine states: Campeche, Yucatán y Quintana Roo in the peninsula; Chiapas, Guerrero y Oaxaca in the slope of the Pacific coast; and Puebla, Tabasco and Veracruz along the coast of the Gulf of Mexico. Together, they form a land surface of 502,738 kilometers squared, and 25.7% of the national territory. The largest states are Oaxaca, Chiapas and Veracruz, in that order, covering 47.8% of the region. In Central America, comparatively, there are seven countries, Belize, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama, and together they have a surface of 523,379 kilometers squared, a little bit more than the south southeastern region of Mexico, which also contains 54.56% of all of the municipalities of the country (1,333 out of 2,443). The extremes are Oaxaca (570 municipalities) and Quintana Roo (8). The region also shares a 1,149 kilometer border with Central America (956 kilometers with Guatemala and 193 with Belize.

Population: More than 63.85 million people live in the PPP region: in Central America there are 36.3 million (57%) and in Mexico 27.5 million (43%). This 27.5 million in the PPP region in Mexico is 28.3% of the total population of the country, which has 97,361,711 inhabitants. In the year 2000, 43.5% resided in Puebla and in the state of Veracruz, which is the state with the highest population (7 million people). Campeche is the least populated with 700,000 inhabitants. Except for Guatemala, Veracruz has a higher population than all of the Central American countries. Chiapas has twice the population of Panama, and a slightly higher population than both Costa Rica and Nicaragua.

Demographic Density: Between the years 1980 and 2000, the population of the PPP region grew 52% (mean annual rate of 1.34% between 1995 and 2000, versus the 1.33% for Mexico). The states of Veracruz, Guerrero, Oaxaca and Yucatán today have average population growth rates that are lower than the national average, partly due to migration. In the states of Quintana Roo, Campeche, Tabasco, Chiapas and Puebla, the rates are higher than the national average due to poverty, migration in search of employment, immigration, tourism, or due to activities of the petroleum industry. In the year 2000, the average in the region was 59 inhabitants per square kilometer (5 times more than the national average). Puebla is the most densely populated state with 150 inhabitants per square kilometer, and Campeche is the least densely populated with less than 12 inhabitants per square kilometer. The demographic density in Central America is 69 people per square kilometer. Nine out of ten towns in Mexico have a high level of marginalization, and the population that lives in small towns is much higher in the South Southeast then in the rest of the country.

In 1995, there were more than 52,000 towns with less than 100 inhabitants and 38.1% of national population lived in said towns. There were another 15,000 towns with between 100 and 499 inhabitants (46.2% of the national total population), where 3.75 million people lived (47% of the national total). Within these small towns, in the south-southeastern region, there are more than 23,000 towns in conditions of isolation (without roads and outside influence of a city) whose population live in highly precarious conditions. In the interior of the region, the states with the highest level of urbanization are Yucatán, Quintana Roo, Campeche and Pueble, while the most rural states are Chiapas and Oaxaca (also on a national level). In the south-southeastern region, out of all of the towns with less than 2,500 inhabitants, 31.3% are considered isolated, and 9.9% of the population of the region lives in these towns. Chiapas has the most extreme level of isolation, where one out of every two towns has no access to the means of communication or basic urban services.

In 1995, the most important cities in the region were: Puebla, in Puebla, with 1.52 million inhabitants (32.78% of the state population), the fourth most populated of the country; Merida in Yucatan, with 677.3 thousand inhabitants (43.5 of the state population); Acapulco in Guerrero with 592.5 thousand (20.31%); Veracruz in Veracruz with 505 thousand inhabitants (7.5% of state total); Tuxtla Gutiérrez in Chiapas, with 378.1 thousand (10.55% of state); Villahermosa in Tabasco with 301.2 thousand inhabitants (17.22%); Cancun in Quintana Roo, with 297,000 inhabitants (42.21 of the state population), with an explosive growth, with population growth rates among the highest in the country; Oaxaca in Oaxaca with 276.5 thousand inhabitants (8.56 of the state total); and Campeche in Campeche with 178,200 inhabitants (27.71%). The joint population of these nine cities represented 18.34% of the total population of the region. There are also other important cities in Veracruz: Coatzacoalcos with 387,500 inhabitants, Jalapa with 366,500, Orizaba with 229,500, Poza Rica with 175,000 and Cordoba with 151,000.

Birth and Death Rates: The birth rate in the south-southeast is 3.1 children per woman, compared to 2.8 on a national level. Some states have particularly high rates: Guerrero (3.6), Chiapas (3.5) and Oaxaca (3.5). The birth rate in the region is higher than the nine states of the country with the highest level of development, which have an average rate of 2 children per woman. The states on the Pacific coast have the highest birth rates, and those of the peninsula have the lowest rates. The states with the highest population growth rates are Chiapas (2.6%) and Quintana Roo (2.5%).

In 1995, the population of children under the age of 5 represented 12.54% of the total population, and children under the age of 15 years made up 38.20%. The work force (between 15 and 64 years) was 57.53% of the total population. The states of Quintana Roo, Yucatan, Campeche, Veracruz and Tabasco, which have more migration for economic reasons, register a higher proportion of population in the work force in contrast with Chiapas, Puebla, Guerrero and Oaxaca. The population older than 65 years is 4.29%, and Yucatan, Oaxaca, Veracruz and Puebla have a higher percentage than the regional and national average. So, the workers of the region have to support on average a higher number of people than the rest of the country.

Migration: The south southeastern region is characterized large amounts of expulsions of people. Between the year 1995 and 2000 1.26 million people immigrated outside of the states of the region, and only .84 million migrated to these states. In this interchange are included the interregional flows (in the interior of the south southeast). In the same years, 4.6% of the population migrated from the states of this region, with Veracruz (6.3%) and Guerrero (5.3%) as the extremes. Quintana Roo is the state with the most attraction of population in the region and in the country (11.37% of its population). The states that in 1990 had a greater accumulated migration away from the region were Veracruz (600,000 people), Puebla (594,000), Oaxaca (486,000) and Guerrero (474,000). Those that received the greatest accumulated migration to their state from other states in the region were Veracruz (252,000), Puebla (198,000) and Guerrero (96,000). Only three states of the region attracted more migration than they lost: Quintana Roo, Campeche and Tabasco, the highest rate was Quintana Roo with 38,000 people.

What the PPP diagnostic fails to mention is that migration from the Central American countries to the region continues to increase, due to poverty and unemployment caused by the Neoliberal Structural Adjustment Policies imposed by the World Bank and the IMF whose effects have been aggravated by natural catastrophes. Since the start of the North America Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) in January of 1994, Mexican immigration authorities have deported more than 750,000 people (an average of 300 people per day), the majority of whom are Guatemalan, Honduran or Salvadoran. In addition, of the percentage of Mexico's population of 12 years and older that has looked for work or worked in the United States since 1997, 10% of them are from Guerrero, Oaxaca and Puebla.

Indigenous Population: The total Indigenous population of the country is estimated at 10 million people, not taking into account those who do not speak an indigenous language but consider themselves to be Indigenous. From 1950 to 1995, the indigenous population of more than 5 years old fell from 11.25% of the national total to 6.8%. The most extreme population drops were in Chiapas and Veracruz. Specifically in the south-southeast, the Indigenous population dropped from 27% to 18.12% during the same years. In 1995, the indigenous population greater than 5 years old in the country was almost 5.5 million people, estimating that by the year 2,000 the population would reach 6 million. Seventy-five percent of the indigenous population over 5 years old that speak an indigenous language live in the south southeastern region of Mexico. Central American has 7 million indigenous citizens (20% of their population), and 80% of this 20% live in Guatemala.

Out of the speakers of an indigenous language who are older than 5 years, around 808,000 (14.81% of the total of this age) only speak the indigenous language. 87.7% of those who only speak an indigenous language live in the south-southeast. Mexican states that have a high percentage of indigenous population are: Yucatan (39.71% of the total state population in 1995) and Oaxaca (36.54%). The states with the smallest indigenous populations are Tabasco (3.35%) and Veracruz (9.93%). The states with the highest proportion of people who only speak an indigenous language are Chiapas (8.09% of total state population) and Oaxaca (5.63%), and those with the lowest proportion are Tabasco (0.02%) and Campeche (.83%).

33% of the Indigenous population do not have any economic income, and another 32% receive less than one minimum salary. Almost 67% of the indigenous households survive on an income of less than one minimum salary. The indigenous people live in precarious conditions of high risk in education, housing, food, and health. However, for the PPP, the geographic dispersion of the indigenous population in small towns is a sign of backwardness for employment. Their solution is the salary of the maquila (assembly plants) which would incorporate the indigenous people in greatly desired development, concentrating the poor in "country homes" like in then north of the country, where after all, the workers do not enjoy better conditions, health, access to education, or a decent salary.

Among the aspects not mentioned in the official diagnostic is that the indigenous territories from Panama to Puebla have the strongest concentration of national and U.S. military, of paramilitary groups, police bodies, and displaced people. There is also a civilian armed population and risks of guerillas in Guatemala, El Salvador, Nicaragua, and Honduras, as well as in almost all of the south-southeast of Mexico. The region is also characterized by deep crises in its democratic systems, lack of consensus about its governments, alarmingly high external debt that is immoral and not payable. All of these aspects are also in part due to poverty indicators, marginalization, and low quality of life that effect physical and mental health, education, political and democratic life, production, commercialization, as well as the cultural recreation of rural populations.

Education: 47% of the illiterate people of the country live in the south southeastern zone. The illiteracy rate in the population of 15 years or older was almost 20% in 1995 in the south-southeast region, compared to the average rate of 7.3% in the rest of the country. In Central America, illiteracy rates reach 26% although in Guatemala and Nicaragua they are around 60%. The region, except for Quintana Roo, has a high percentage of population that cannot read or write, with rates that span from 26.2% in Chiapas to 9.7% in Quintana Roo. For each illiterate person in Mexico City, there are almost eight in Chiapas. The population in the south-southeast region had an average of 6.7 years of schooling in 1995, compared to the national average of 7.7 years.

The Pacific states have lower rates of people in school. Chiapas has the lowest average of 5.6 years, followed by Oaxaca with 6 years and Guerrero with 6.2 years. Quintana Roo is the only state in the region with an average higher than the national average, at 8.2 years. All of the states in the region, except for Quintana Roo, have an average of at least 1.5 years less than that of the nine most advanced states of the country, and in the case of the extreme of Chiapas, the difference is of 4 years compared to Mexico City. Of all of the boys and girls of the country between 6 and 14 who attend school, 28% are from the south southeastern region.

In primary education, the lack of school attendance in the region is almost 2.7%, while the national average is 2.1%. Chiapas is the state with the highest index of lack of school attendance (5.0%), and only Quintana Roo with a rate of .7% and Puebla with 2.1% have a rate equal to or lower than the national average of 8.5%. On average, the successful completion of secondary education in the south-southeast is 76.3% compared to 76.6 percent nationally. On the other hand, the percentage of married couples that have not completed a primary education is 70% in the region.

In higher education, the average drop out rate in the region is 14.8% compared to the national rate of 17.2%. Guerrero and Oaxaca have the lowest drop out rates in the zone, while Campeche and Yucatan have the highest. Campeche has the high drop out rate of 20.1% and a low successful completion rate of 50.8%. Veracruz, Chiapas and Puebla have the lowest rates of coverage in basic education in the region, while Tabasco, Guerrero and Oaxaca are among those with the highest coverage. The rate of coverage has stayed almost four percentage points lower than the national average in the south-southeast. In Chiapas (27.6%), Puebla (32.3%) and Oaxaca (33.3%), the rate of coverage in middle and high school education are the lowest in the region.

In the south-southeast, less than 10% of the population of high school age is in school. Only Campeche, Puebla and Guerrero have a coverage rate higher than 10%, while Chiapas and Quintana Roo are extremely behind. The matriculation from middle to high school education was 10.5% nationally, and only 9.9% in the region. Matriculation in higher education on a national level was 7.2% and only 5.4% in the region, where Chiapas, Quintana Roo, Oaxaca and Veracruz had matriculation rates lower than 5%. The average spending on education, excluding Tabasco and Veracruz, is 11.4% of public spending in the region, compared to the national average of 17.3%, and very far from the education spending in the states of Mexico (34.1%), Baja California (33.5%), Jalisco (31.4%), Nuevo Leon (30.5%) and Guanajuato (28.5%). The states with the least federal spending per student are those with the highest demographic growth within the south southeastern region.

Health: While accepting that the south southeaster region is falling behind in the areas of education and health due to deficiencies in sanitation infrastructure, contradictory to the PPP the diagnostic affirms that life expectancies at birth grew due to advances in sanitation and in conditions of life in general. The prognostic defines that life expectancy at birth for Mexicans of 72.6 years (1995) is still less than the rates in more developed countries of around 80 years. The PPP region has an average life expectancy rate of 70.9%, significantly lower than the national average. Only Quintana Roo has a life expectancy rate higher than the national average. The states of the south southeast with the lowest life expectancy rates on a global level were Chiapas and Oaxaca with 69.4 years, 5 years less than in Mexico City. In 1995, Chiapas and Oaxaca were the states with the lowest life expectancy rates at birth for men (66.7 years in Chiapas, 66.9 years in Oaxaca) and for women (72 years in both states), not only compared to other states in the region, but on a national level.

Death rates in the south-southeast were 4.6 for every 1000 inhabitants in 1997. Puebla, Oaxaca and Yucatan have higher rates than the national average, while Quintana Roo, Guerrero, Campeche and Tabasco are the states in the region with the lowest total mortality rates. Sicknesses due to underdevelopment like infections and parasites (5.45%) and those associated with malnutrition (3%) stand out as causes of death in the region. Death by heart and brain diseases and malignant tumors are higher than the national average in Veracruz and Yucatán. Malnutrition as a cause of death has higher levels than the national average in Oaxaca, Puebla, Veracruz and Yucatan; this can be explained also because Veracruz and Yucatan also have the highest level of death by chronic illnesses, particularly diabetes. Death by infectious intestinal sicknesses in the state of Chiapas is three times the national average.

The official diagnostic affirms that all of the states in the region in 1995 had rates of infant mortality lower than the national average, except for Puebla with a rate of 43.6% for every 1,000 infants under the age of one year old, and Oaxaca with 24. The rate of infant mortality in Chiapas is 68% higher than in Mexico City. The preschool (under the age of 5) mortality rate in Oaxaca (2.28 deaths out of every 1,000), Puebla (1.77) and Chiapas (1.75) is much higher than the national average of 1.06.

Chiapas, Guerrero, Oaxaca, Puebla and Veracruz have the lowest life expectancy rates and the highest birth and infant mortality rates in the nation, similar to the rates for Mexico ten years ago. These states, together with Tabasco, are characterized by having the highest rural population, and the highest population in small towns, the least health infrastructure, and the lowest levels of income and education. In the south-southeast there is an average of one doctor for every 1,000 inhabitants, a figure that is 20% less than the national average. Puebla, Oaxaca, Chiapas and Guerrero also have a lower average than the national and regional averages. In the region there are 1.43 nurses for every 1,000 inhabitants compared to 1.85 nationally, and the states with the least are Chiapas (1.15) and Puebla (1.18).

Isolation-Marginalization: Of the 10 states with the highest grade of marginalization, 8 of them are in the south-southeast. In order of highest level of marginalization to lowest are: Chiapas, Guerrero, Oaxaca, Veracruz, Puebla and Yucatán. Campeche and Yucatan are in 8th and 10th place with respect to marginalization. In Chiapas, Guerrero and Oaxaca, the index of poverty is higher than 40%, more than double the national average. Only Quintana Roo has a slightly lower average than the national average. The majority of the inhabitants of the south-southeast are among the more than 50 million poor people of the country. Of the 851 municipalities of the country with 10.6 million inhabitants considered to have high and very high marginalziation rates, 83.9% or 714 of these municipalities with a population of 8 million are in the south southeast. In fact, in this region, more than half of the municipalities have high or very high marginalization rates, compared tot he national proportion of one out of every three. And the 250 municipalities still more poor in Mexico are also in this region.

The proportion of the population that lives in marginalized towns is 50% in Oaxaca and Chiapas, and 44% in Guerrero. The national level is a little more than one out of every ten. The inhabitants that live in marginalized towns in the nine most developed states of the country make up less than 5% of the total population. According to the human development index of the United Nations, all of the states of the region have lower development than the national average, except for Quintana Roo and Campeche. Chiapas and Oaxaca are the states with the lowest human development indices in the region.

Housing: The average number of occupants per house in the south-southeast is similar to the national average of 4.4 occupants per house. The number of inhabitants per house is slightly less than the national average in Quintana Roo, Veracruz and Campeche, equal to the national average in Yucatan, and slightly higher in the other states of the region. Chiapas and Puebla are the states with the highest crowding. In the south-southeast, the proportion of houses in 1990 with only one room was almost double the national level, and the proportion of houses with two rooms was 30% greater than the national level. Nationally, around 33% of houses have one or two rooms compared to 50% in the south- southeast. At the other extreme, while on a national level almost 24% of houses had 5 or more rooms, in the PPP region it was just slightly more than 12%. The most precarious situations exist in the states of Guerrero with 22.7% of houses with only one room and 38.4% with two, Chiapas with 19.7% and 39.1%, and Oaxaca with 17.9% and 40.3% respectively. So while the national level of average house size is close to 3.5 rooms, in the least developed states in the south southeastern region the average is barely 1.9 rooms.

In the south-southeast, 43.5% of houses had an earth floor in 1990 compared to the national average of 20%. This represents a lag of 20 years compared to the national average. The proportion of houses with earth floors is almost four times more then in the states outside of the region, or double the national average. In Oaxaca and Chiapas in 1990 more than 60% of houses still had earth floors, which represents a 30-year lag with respect to the national average. On the other hand, in the region 42% of the houses in 1995 did not have drainage, while the national average was 25%, 32% did not have running water while the national average was 15%, 15.2% have no electricity, 35.4% used firewood to cook in 1990 while the national average was 25%. Particularly in Oaxaca the percentage of people who used firewood to cook was 51.2%, in Chiapas 45.9% and in Guerrero 45.9%.

Faced with the tendency to privatize state services according to the tenets of the Free Trade Area of the Americas, how will the situation improve? Will the multinational corporations guarantee access to health, education, wages and services for the most poor? Gustavo Castro Soto

Sources: Official PPP document; Statistic Agenda 200 of INEGI; "The South Also Exists: an essay about regional development in Mexico," by Dávila, Kessel and Levy; declarations by Florencio Salazar Ademe, PPP Coordinator; National Advisory of Population (CONAPO).

Note: You can consult the complete official document and maps about these aspects in our web page:, as well as the diagnostic on Central America.

Center for Economic and Political Investigations of Community Action, A.C. CIEPAC is a member of the Movement for Democracy and Life (MDV) of Chiapas, the Mexican Network of Action Against Free Trade (RMALC), Convergence of Movements of the Peoples of the Americas (COMPA), Network for Peace in Chiapas, Week for Biological and Cultural Diversity and of the International Forum "The People Before Globalization", Alternatives to the PPP

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