RIO DE JANEIRO- Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's prospects for reelection this year, which were hurt in the past eight months by a spate of corruption scandals, have improved according to a poll released Tuesday.

Lula's popularity has returned to the levels seen before the scandal broke out in late May 2005, as shown by a survey conducted by the Sensus Institute for the National Transport Confederation.

Approval of Lula's performance rose to 53.3 percent, from 46.7 percent in November, while the government's approval rating went up to 37.5 percent, from 31.1 percent. At the same time, the proportion of respondents who said they had a "negative" view of the Lula administration dropped from 29 to 21.4 percent.

The Sensus Institute, one of Brazil's leading polling firms, interviewed 2,000 people nationwide from Feb. 6-9.

The survey showed that the president is once again frontrunner in the polls for the October elections. His closest probable rival, Sao Paulo Mayor José Serra, would lose to Lula in a second round by 37.6 percent of the vote compared to 47.6 percent.

Last November's poll results had shown Serra, who Lula defeated in 2002, losing by a much smaller margin: 37.6 percent against 41.5 percent.

Tuesday's results "reflect Lula's recovery in the past two months, after his popularity declined steadily last year, up to November," Marcos Figueiredo, a graduate studies professor in political science at the Rio de Janeiro University Research Institute (IUPERJ), told IPS.

But he also noted that "it is impossible to ensure that the upward trend will continue," because it might simply reflect a good period during which new allegations of graft did not appear, and Lula received "heavy news coverage, reporting strong results in the areas of the economy and social policies."

In the survey, 31.8 percent of respondents said "the solution of social problems" was the first criterion on which they would base their vote, just ahead of "public morality", which was cited by 30.1 percent.

Seven months ago, when the corruption crisis was snowballing, "morality" was listed as respondents' top priority, with 32.2 percent citing that concern, compared to 26 percent who mentioned social issues.

The corruption scandal, in which the leftist governing Workers' Party (PT) admitted that it had used illegal campaign funds and was accused of purchasing support for its bills in Congress, brought down a number of the party's top leaders.

Lula and his government have plenty to boast about when it comes to social spending, said Figueiredo. Besides the family grants programme that provides assistance to 8.7 million households, ranging from 15 to 95 reals (6.80 to 43.20 dollars) a month depending on the number of school-age children, the government created or expanded a number of other programmes that benefit the poor.

For instance, soft loans for retirees and workers boosted consumption among millions of low-income families, the analyst pointed out.

In addition, steps have been taken to make a university education more accessible to the poor, through a system of scholarships and loans. And Congress is expected to pass a law that would put a quota system in place reserving spots in public universities for low-income, black and indigenous high school graduates.

On the economic front, more formal sector jobs have been generated, and the government has been gradually increasing the monthly minimum wage, which will have risen to 350 reals (159 dollars) by May, a real increase of more than 10 percent. That will also have a positive impact on 14 million pensioners, whose benefits are pegged to the minimum wage.

"Lula never ceased to be a strong candidate for the October presidential elections," even at the height of the crisis, said Figueiredo.

Nevertheless, his rebound took many by surprise, as they believed his popularity ratings had been irreversibly damaged by the allegations of graft that are still being investigated by congressional commissions, federal prosecutors and the police.

Lula's recovery will mainly affect the Brazilian Social Democracy Party (PSDB), which had reaped the greatest benefits from the scandal, said the analyst.

He noted that the opposition party must decide which candidate will represent it in the elections. A less likely PSDB triumph in October could accentuate the split within the party, whose possible candidates are Serra and Sao Paulo state Governor Geraldo Alckmin.

The survey published Tuesday showed that Alckmin would be trounced by Lula in a runoff election, by a whopping 42.2 to 17.4 percent. Although Serra stands a better chance of winning, it would be a tough choice for him to resign as mayor of Brazil's largest city 2.5 years before his term is up to take part in an election in which he looks likely to relive his 2002 defeat by Lula, Figueiredo added.