The Washington Post
April 23, 2002
By Richard Morin and Claudia Deane

As the Israeli military operation on the West Bank winds down, the American public is wary of seeing the United States continue to take the lead in brokering deals between the two warring sides, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News Poll.

A narrow majority -- 54 percent -- said the United States should stand aside and let Israel and the Palestinian Authority take the lead role in crafting a peace agreement. Six in 10 say they want Israel to negotiate directly with Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat to end the current conflict -- a move rejected by Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon.

A majority also fault both sides for failing to control the bloodshed that has enveloped the region in recent months, the survey found. Most Americans blame Israel for not doing enough to prevent Palestinian civilian casualties during its military incursion into the West Bank and Gaza Strip. But an even larger majority fault Arafat for not doing more to end the wave of terrorist attacks against Israeli citizens.

In question after question, the poll suggests the American public is frustrated and largely confused about what, if anything, the United States can or should do to bring Israel and the Palestinians closer to peace. Many Americans doubt that either side is truly serious about reaching an agreement.

The survey also suggests that the Bush administration will get little guidance from the public as it plots its next move in the Middle East. On the one hand, Bush would appear to have a relatively free hand in setting policy. On the other hand, most Americans agree that the United States has a "vital interest" in the Israeli-Palestinian situation. That suggests the public could punish the administration if the conflict worsens.

"I don't know that there can be a resolution at this time. I think they both are so set in what they want, and it's so opposite," said Paula Schapp, 34, a homemaker who lives in Tulsa. "I am pretty open to see what [the Bush administration] tries next, because I don't know what I would do if I was in control."

"I think we should be a little bit more aggressive," said Cruz Castro, 45, a construction worker in Sacramento. "The U.S. has already put itself up on the table as a leader for peace. So it has to get involved ... it can't lay back and watch these two countries rip each other apart."

The survey found that many Americans question the motives of both Israel and the Palestinian Authority. More than four in 10 -- 43 percent -- believe Israel's goal is to seize control of the West Bank and Gaza. But the public was equally suspicious of Arafat and the Palestinian Authority: 43 percent said the goal of the Palestinians was to "destroy the state of Israel."

These mixed, ambivalent views also are reflected in the public's evaluation of Secretary of State Colin L. Powell's trip last week to the Middle East. Barely four in 10 said Powell's trip improved the prospects of peace, while half said it did not.

But few blame Powell or President Bush for the mission's failure. Among those who felt no progress was made, the overwhelming majority blamed either the Palestinians (31 percent) Israel (15 percent) or both sides equally (30 percent) rather than faulting Powell (11 percent).

Even more ambivalence is apparent when Americans are asked to look to the future. If Israel continues to defy Bush and refuses to withdraw entirely from Palestinian areas it recently occupied, about half of those interviewed said the United States should withhold military or economic aid from Israel -- but just as many disagreed.

And when asked whether the United States should give economic aid to the Palestinian Authority if it makes peace with Israel, 47 percent said yes -- and 47 percent said no.

A total of 1,207 randomly selected adults were interviewed April 18 to 21. Margin of sampling error for the overall results is plus or minus 3 percentage points.

The survey held large doses of good and bad news for the Bush administration, Israel and the Palestinian Authority.

Bush continues to enjoy the confidence of most Americans. His overall job approval rating stands at 78 percent, unchanged in the past month. Seven in 10 approve of the way he is handling foreign affairs. A smaller majority -- 57 percent -- approve of the way Bush is handling the current "situation between Israel and the Palestinians." About six in 10 respondents said the United States is doing enough to arrange a peace agreement.

But the survey contained cautions for Bush. Most Americans would prefer that the United States take a secondary role in arranging a peace agreement. And a small majority -- 54 percent -- fear that U.S. support for Israel will hurt the broader U.S.-led war on international terrorism.

The survey also contained mixed news for Israel and the Palestinians. Americans are more sympathetic to Israel (49 percent) than to the Palestinians (14 percent). These warm feelings appear to be largely unchanged since October, when 52 percent expressed sympathy for Israel.

Most Americans also blame Palestinians more than Israel for the recent violence and said Israel was justified in sending troops into Palestinian neighborhoods and refugee camps. A majority of Americans -- 60 percent -- also said the United States should continue to support Israel at current levels, while 16 percent said the support should be increased. Still, there has been some erosion: The proportion who said the United States should reduce support for Israel has increased from 13 percent to 21 percent since October.

Six in 10 fault Israel for failing to do enough to avoid civilian casualties during its three-week-old military incursion into the West Bank and Gaza. But nine in 10 Americans said Arafat "can do more" to end terrorist attacks against Israel -- and three in four said Arafat was responsible for the attacks.

The survey found that support for a Palestinian state has increased 13 percentage points to 68 percent since early October. Even among those who were more sympathetic to Israel, 63 percent said the United States should formally grant the Palestinians recognition as an independent nation.